Welcome back to the Box Office Report! This week Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 seems to have a competitor in the charts even though everything new this week is kind of a bust. It’s not that surprising seeing how not everyone is going to be into the films that released and most are probably anticipating the release for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. But on to this weekend’s estimates as we analyze what has been a pretty down week in the box office!
Alien: Covenant didn’t exactly storm out of the gates releasing with an underwhelming estimated $36 million. The film has been receiving reviews similar to that of Prometheus yet has made $15 million less over the first three days than the prequel film. Given that CinemaScore has the movie at a B overall doesn’t bode well for the film. I personally don’t believe this film is going to be a true financial success at this point. Boxofficemojo.com and the-numbers.com both had the film projected to opening at over $40 million but even then it would still be a stretch for the film to draw in adequate numbers. The film series is a stale and seems to be in a dire need for a reboot. The foreign totals look a bit nicer for the film as it opened with $82 million internationally and I think that’s where this movie will have to make its money as the $97 million budget will be hard to make back domestically. Fox could still potentially green light another sequel but at this point does anyone really care?
Back at it again, although this time in second place, is the love child of space epics and class rock, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, with a barely second place $35 million. Truthfully I could see the film being the top movie of the weekend again once the actuals come out sometime Monday afternoon. I just have a hunch that Fox is trying to upswing Alien: Covenant’s totals to try and be optimistic but I digress. In terms of Marvel’s first sequel films (Comparing the film against Avengers: Age of Ultron, Captain America: Winter Soldier, Iron Man 2, and Thor 2) GotG 2 has the second highest gross worldwide at $732 million (first being Age of Ultron with $1.4 billion and third is Captain America: Winter Soldier with $714 million). The film is also less than $50 million away from the final worldwide gross of the first Guardians of the Galaxy. I still believe the film has the chance to make over $800 million worldwide but at this point I don’t think it matters. This film is a financial success no matter what happens at this point.
Other new releases seemed to be hit or miss depending on what your expectations were. Everything, Everything made back its budget, at least, and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul landed a bit flat on its face versus a budget of $22 million. It’s the fourth film in the series, no less, which has been ongoing since 2010. Coincidentally, Diary of a Wimpy Kid, the first film in the series, was the most profitable of the series and it’s been downhill ever since. Everything, Everything is this week’s young adult novel adaptation. You really don’t have to aim high with these types of movies.
I’m going to be a bit bitter for a while with how poorly King Arthur: Legend of the Sword has performed. The film deserves better than what it’s getting.
Domestically we find that Beauty and the Beast is inching ever so close to hitting $500 million. I still believe it has a chance as the film brought in $2.4 million this weekend and it should hit that mark within another three weeks no matter the competition (Tune in three weeks from now to see if I was wrong!). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 hit $300 million, to no one’s surprise, as the film continues to cruise. As I said earlier, this film is a success no matter what happens at this point as it is all additional icing on a mouse ear shaped cake. Note that the top two releases domestically this year, so far, have come from Disney and next week’s Pirates film could eventually be number three. Fate of the Furious is losing steam and it seems impossible now for it to reach its budget of $250 million. Universal probably doesn’t care too much as they are all busy rolling in that sweet, sweet international cash ($992 million internationally with an astonishing $387 million of that coming from China). The domestic and international split is looking very similar to a Transformers movie (Transformers movies tend to have a smaller domestic total when compared to international). The LEGO Batman Movie finally hit the $175 million mark and by this time next weekend Get Out should do the same.
There isn’t much of a change internationally. I honestly thought at one point that Fate of the Furious would catch up to Beauty and the Beast but now I wonder if it really will. It’ll be interesting to see if it can top $1 billion internationally. The one surprise to me is that The Boss Baby has made more money that I think it really should have (“Your Name is a better animated film!” I say having never seen The Boss Baby). Outside of that, nearly half of the top 10 are movies that have been closed for a while (still). We won’t get another shake up until next weekend.
Notable movies that officially closed last Thursday:
The Shack ($89 million worldwide gross, $57 million domestic)
The Promise (2017) ($8 million worldwide gross verses a budget of $90 million!? What the heck? With Christian Bale and Oscar Issac!? WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THIS!?),
A Dog’s Purpose ($188 million worldwide gross, $64 million domestic vs $22 million budget)
So how much will Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales make in its opening weekend? A lot. Next week I dive into the film and see how well it is doing compared to the other films in the franchise. Also, is Alien: Covenant a legit bust? Will Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 keep soaring? Does Dwayne Johnson wear shirts that are way too small? Find out the answers to these questions (or not) next time on The Box Office Report!
AND LET’S START THAT WONDER WOMAN HYPE! WOO!