Another weekend has hit and passed us by! Welcome to The Box Office Report where I give some opinion and insight to what just happened this past weekend in theaters! So join me after the break as we dive right into the second weekend of July!
War for the Planet of the Apes, which should be nominated for “Longest and Most Confusing Title in Franchise”, had a similar opening weekend as the first film in the franchise, Rise of the Planet of the Apes (or was it Dawn? No, that was the second one. So I’m fairly sure it was Rise although I’m officially confused now.). Rise opened to the tune of $54.8 M and went on to gross $176.7 M domestically although it had a much smaller budget of $93 M. War for the Planet of the Apes, though, has a trimmed budget when compared to Dawn ($150 M vs $170 M). What does all of this mean? Well, for starters, I’m actually surprised this film opened so low when it has gotten great reviews across the board (Rotten Tomatoes – 95%, Metacritic – 82, and CinemaScore – A-) but I know reviews aren’t everything. Even the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes sits at 88% so it’s not like everyone has a huge differentiating opinion from the critics. I’m sure some people want to say that Spider-Man: Homecoming has stolen the additional money it could make, and that’s a great point, but Homecoming had the worst second weekend drop in MCU history. So I’m going to go with the narrative that this franchise peaked with Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.
I was hoping for a $60 M plus opening but it made $16 M less than Dawn (Dawn opened with $72.6 M). This honestly concerns me with how much money the film could potentially make. Rise had a multiplier of roughly 3.22, which signifies how popular the film was (the film went on to make 3.22 times its opening weekend total). Dawn‘s multiplier was lower at 2.81, so while the film made more on opening weekend it didn’t track nearly as well as the first film in the franchise. So this leads us to War and what could possibly happen with the film. If the film has multipliers similar to the first two films it could be looking at $158 M to $181 M domestically. If the multiplier continues to drop like it has between the first two films then we could see its domestic run be between $135 to $147. Now obviously my estimations are could be wrong (they usually are!) but this also may be the reason why Fox decided to trim the budget. The film is going to have to have a really strong international pull in order to make money as I’m curious if it will even make back its production budget domestically. I’m also unsure if this is the final installment in the franchise as I’m sure Fox is hoping to do more with it but the audience just may not be up to it. If the second weekend drops are close to 50% then I’d say the film is in jeopardy which feels quite insane for me to say. This will be fascinating to keep a close eye on moving forward.
As I stated above, Spider-Man: Homecoming had the worst second weekend drop for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film to date. Although $44 M is nothing to really throw your nose up at. I had initially stated that I think the film could end up with Spider-Man 2 numbers, somewhere around $325 M domestically, but after this past weekend I’m wondering if the film can even get to $300 M. This drop has almost nothing to do with Apes as I fully believe that there is a level of “Spidey fatigue” running amok through audiences. I think Marvel knew this would be the case which is why they stuffed Robert Downey Jr. into the film. So where do I see the film sitting at after its run in theaters is up? Currently it’s the thirteenth highest grossing MCU film worldwide making more than Thor but less than Ant-Man. It’s also the eleventh highest grossing MCU film domestically, slotting in between Thor: The Dark World and Doctor Strange. I don’t think the third weekend drop will be as severe as the second weekend so I’m going to say the film ends up with around $295 M domestically, which a chance to go over $300 M, and a foreign total of close to $350 M, although that’s a bit harder to predict so I wouldn’t be surprised if the final amount of higher than that. This would be the film fairly close to what Doctor Strange made and I think that’s the case with Homecoming. This film will still considered to be a success but if Sony had been smarter with the franchise it wouldn’t have come down to this.
Despicable Me 3 will still end up making less than the original Despicable Me domestically (DM 3 is currently at $188 M vs DM 1 which had $251 M) and it won’t have the success that Despicable Me 2 had worldwide (DM 3 – $622.4 M vs DM 2 – $970.8 M) but if I’m Universal/DreamWorks/Illumination then I can’t be mad. How many films with an $80 M budget or less have gone on to gross over $600 M worldwide? The Hunger Games, The Lion King, The Lost World: Jurassic Park, Minions, Shrek 2, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Jurassic Park, Deadpool, Forrest Gump…I think you get the picture by now. I know that looks like a pretty big list but I think Universal/DreamWorks/Illumination have found a sweet spot in their production budgets to continue to be extremely successful.
Baby Driver continues to perform extremely well as the film draws even closer to $100 M worldwide. It currently sits at $96 M worldwide. This is arguably one of my top films of the year so far and I don’t think I can say much more about it! Interestingly enough this is the fifth highest grossing film, domestically, that Jon Hamm has been in (Minions, Bridemaids, The Town, and The Day the Earth Stood Still (2008) are one through four although Baby Driver will easily pass The Day the Earth Stood Still within two weeks or less) and the seventh highest grossing film for Kevin Spacey.
The Big Sick finally went wide expanding into an additional 2200 plus theaters as it took the number five spot on the weekend list. I wish I could find what the budget of the film was as I’m curious if it’s really been a success. I always enjoy seeing an indie style film do well.
Rest of the Top 10 Quick Hits:
Wonder Woman refuses to go down as it dropped right under 31% pulling its domestic total to $380 M. The film still has a slight outside shot at making $400 M. Some people say it’s a lock, I’m not as optimistic. Wish Upon is another low rated horror affair released by indie distributor Broad Green Pictures, distributors of classics such as A Walk in the Woods and Bad Santa 2, that probably won’t be able to justify its $12 M budget. I don’t care who says what, we are not getting another Cars movie for a long time, if ever. Cars 3 has made less than half of what the original Cars made worldwide. Even for a glorified toy commercial that is embarrassing due to Pixar’s usually fantastic track record. The same could be said for Transformers: The Last Knight although I think we are beyond a mercy killing at this point. It’s been out for four weeks so just let it die. Much like most of the recent Will Ferrell films, including The House. The bottom of the top ten this week is just horrible.
Comic Book Quality: Guardians of the Galaxy 2 ($509K this past weekend) has been out for eleven weeks and still out-grossed Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales ($496K) and The Mummy (2017) ($632K). These two films have been out eight weeks and 6 weeks respectively.
2017 Domestic Totals:
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 has had a fantastic run but Wonder Woman is going to pass by their total by next weekend at some point as the film attempts to hit $400 M. Spider-Man: Homecoming has finally entered the top ten. I expect it to find a spot between Logan and Wonder Woman for a few months. Similar with Despicable Me 3, I don’t see it moving much from where it sits. I think it has an outside shot at passing The Fate of the Furious though. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales was pushed out of the top ten. We may not see many more changes to this list until some of the later heavy hitters (Thor: Ragnorak, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi) hit theaters.
Notable Film Closings:
Beauty and the Beast (2017)
Opened: March 17th, Closed: July 13th
$504 M domestically, $1.2 billion worldwide vs $160 M budget
The film at the top of the box office this year has finally closed. Not only does this give Disney more reason to pursue these live-action adaptations it informs the rest of us that these aren’t going away anytime soon. The big question will remain: Will we have a film that can somehow top this one worldwide going forward? Possibly but it’ll probably be another Disney franchise.
Opened: March 3rd, Closed: July 13th
$226 M domestically, $616 worldwide vs $97 M budget
The film that continued to give movie goers something different than the standard MCU affair, this film will certainly go down in history as one of the all-time greats. Gritty, violent, and real, I hope this gives Fox the confidence to move forward with more R-rated comic book movies because I believe they have clearly found an audience with these kinds of films.
The Fate of the Furious
Opened: April 14th, Closed: July 13th
$225.7 domestically, 1.2 billion worldwide vs $250 M budget
The second highest grossing film of the year also has closed and I can frankly say good riddance. All of the good will and charm of Furious 7 was scrubbed right off with bloated over the top action that made this film feel more like a comic book movie than anything else. There is some good bits but it’s not enough to excuse this film. The series definitely peaked at 7 but Universal has no reason to stop making these films right now.
2017 Worldwide Totals:
With Beauty and the Beast and The Fate of the Furious finally closing, and Guardians of the Galaxy 2 nearing its theater run, I don’t expect the top five to really change much for a while. Spider-Man: Homecoming is currently sitting in eleventh place. Wonder Woman still has an outside shot at hitting $800 M worldwide. I doubt any other film will challenge the top five unless Homecoming, War for the Planet of the Apes, or Dunkirk ends up surprising everyone. It should be very quiet for the next few months.
So that will do it for this week’s Box Office Report! If you see any movies you’d like for me to comment on for next week then please leave a comment below or stop by our Facebook page and let us know there! Next week we set sail to Dunkirk as Christopher Nolan brings to us what should be an exciting and tense War War 2 film. How well does it perform? What does War for the Planet of the Apes look like after weekend number two? Tune in next week for all of this and more! Thanks for reading and for all of the support!